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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.