Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.