How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.