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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|